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Kim Slocum's avatar

If the Dems get a majority in the House and Senate next year (a stretch, but not impossible) they’d have enough power to effectively stop Trump’s inroads on Democracy. That doesn’t speak to repairing the considerable damage that’s already been done, but it’s at least a start

Getting a “trifecta” of our own in 2028 would make it possible to pass a few pieces of legislation that could enable Chris’ “soft secession” vision by effectively permanently kneecapping the federal government’s ability to fund itself.

Christopher Armitage's avatar

The good news is that we still have so much power at the city and state level. So even if things are suboptimal federally, progress can happen beyond just opposition and into actually improving the lives of everyone!

Paul Croisiere's avatar

Fascist red states have centralized state power to prevent democratic districts governing progressively locally.

Find freedom's avatar

We need more BLUE Governors and flip RED Senator seats and RED House seats BLUE.

This is why it is important for the DEMS to return to the RED states and work with voters.

Kim Slocum's avatar

Chris: I’ve been doing some thought exercises with your concepts of states withholding tax liability payments from the IRS. I looked up the legal basis for the IRS to reach out directly to individual citizens to collect payments. I’d like to hear from an expert, but I think legislation would be possible to require those payments to flow through states (we’d need to include a “non-reviewability” provision to prevent SCOTUS from overturning it).

It’s common knowledge that the US economy is overwhelmingly concentrated in blue counties. Gavin Newsom has been quoted as saying that 71% of the county’s entire economic output originated from counties that voted for Harris last year. If the blue states had effective veto power over the money their residents would normally send to the IRS, veto power also exists over the government’s ability to use the military to oppress blue areas. That would help on multiple fronts.

BTW—Simon Rosenburg (Hopium Chronicles) commented on “soft secession” several weeks ago during his weekly Q&A with subscribers. His position was that the Republicans were the ones who were “seceding”—from the Constitution. He’s got a point and that might be a useful position to take down the road a bit.

Christopher Armitage's avatar

Thanks for your research on the tax side, this is all very helpful. These comment sections are the home of so many great discussions on how to better organize opposition and more effective public policy tools for fighting back against authoritatian consolidation.

John Harris's avatar

Except every time that the national Democrats have been given power they turn it over to their conservative members, or their conservative members give them a permission system for not doing anything that helps us. At this point the status quo is already ratcheted so far into the far right that without drastic measures ICE would just continue to serve as a basically independent and heavily armed branch of government violently enforcing white supremacy. Although they never stop making demands from us as if they were more effective than they actually were.

Carie's avatar

but would they stop it? They haven't done anything this year, right? All of Congress has been compromised.

Kim Slocum's avatar

A traditional political party playing by what used to be accepted as the rules doesn’t have a lot of options. That’s really the difference between a party and an opposition movement. I think a lot of the public frustration with the Dems leadership comes down to the fact that for most of the year they were trying to be the former when folks outside the Beltway wanted the latter.

Michael S Phillips's avatar

This assumes the only way is through the Democratic party. What if a coalition could form between all who are against corruption in politics and who abhor the Epstein elites? The path could be to find Republicans who stand against corruption (hard as that might seem), and then organize mass recall elections in red states, in which Republicans who are complicit in corruption are removed from office. Get a large enough coalition and corrupt politicians in Congress can be removed from office with a 2/3 majority, and special elections would follow to replace them.

Sure, having more Democrats is part of the process, but as long as it remains a tribal approach, the tribalist problems will persist. As you say, the kinds of majorities needed are very unlikely to happen with Democrats running the table, especially when our elections systems are still not secure. It's time for America to come together.

Jason Edwards's avatar

Exactly this. The tribal approach keeps us trapped in a system that can't fix itself.The structural problems (corruption, broken accountability, perverse incentives) transcend party. But the system punishes anyone who tries to work across tribal lines.We need coalitions around undeniable problems, not party loyalty. That's the only path to the supermajorities needed for structural reform.

Roger Wiesmeyer's avatar

I love this thinking. 🙏

Jason Edwards's avatar

Thanks! Trying to go deeper on why the system keeps producing these failures. If you're interested in the structural analysis, I write about this at https://statecraftblueprint.org/

Pterodactyl-Cape's avatar

WHOA.

This is an amazing piece!!!

You just blew my mind.

Our underlying bridge beams are buckling, and we keep focusing on the color of our road paint. That distills so much dysfunction.

I think this moment has exposed for all of us how not-fine this nation has been for a very long time, especially for the most vulnerable. It's always been rigged, but before it was deniable. If we don't all die in camps, we now have the urgency to fix things properly.

I'm gonna go read more of your writing to see if you have ideas that we can implement. There's a nod to it in this 12-funding-bill from our own history (the cart and buggy version is better than our electric car version today!)

"The Collapse of Redundancy: Think about the “legislative funnel.” In the past, Congress used 12 separate appropriations subcommittees to pass 12 separate funding bills—like a bridge resting on 12 independent pillars. If one pillar had a problem, the bridge stood on the other eleven. Today, structural erosion has forced almost all spending into massive, singular “omnibus” packages. We have effectively replaced 12 pillars with one precarious column. Now, a disagreement over any single issue—border security, healthcare, or a specific regulation—threatens to collapse the entire structure (a government shutdown). That isn’t a failure of willpower; it’s a textbook engineering failure. We stripped the system of its structural redundancy.

These aren’t policy failures. They’re structural failures. You can see them directly, like rust on those bridge beams."

protzman's avatar

Nice dream. I’m afraid we're stuck in a sick version of hell that won't end without a violent reset. Sorry to say it, but that's how I see it.

Michael S Phillips's avatar

You might well be right, but it's probably at least marginally more likely than Democrats getting supermajorities under their own power with a rigged election system.

Mary's avatar

Anybody notice how MAGA got into and then TOOK OVER the GOP? Just sayin’

THATS the way….

Mark's avatar

They did have a focused, united effort going back to the early 90s under Newt Gingrich, the Contract with America, the Patriot Act, the Tea Party, and Q-Anon zealots each doing heavy lifting so that the MAGA brand could slide in fairly effortlessly. There are people in their 50s in America who have never known freedom from the corruption and exploitation of the Republican party.

Some would argue that it has been the case since the Republicans adopted the Southern Strategy ("the Great Swing") in the 60s. That equates to nearly 4 full generations wasted by conservative plundering and malevolence. MAGA is just the frosting on the cake.

Mary's avatar

Oh yes. 100%

Hellsbells69's avatar

I think the most strategic (like MTG) and the most vulnerable R’s especially in the House, are BEGINNING, slowly, to put distance between them and the excesses of the Trump admin. I doubt we’ll sweep, but in the House, we may be able to persuade some to vote with Dems on certain bills. The Senate, however, are not at risk every 2 years, and will likely fight against compromise. RNC big money sees that Trump’s health is declining rapidly and the base is fracturing. They have already started to change their image (again, MTG) and I suspect are already grooming Trump’s replacement. By the 2026 elections they will try to say they didn’t support the BBB.

Assemblywoman Debra Mazzarelli's avatar

Love what I’m reading! Thank you!

Assemblywoman Debra Mazzarelli's avatar

I just wanted to add that I don’t believe there will be a midterm vote if Trump is still in office…he will prevent them for some fabricated reason!

Roger Wiesmeyer's avatar

Fair enough. If that is the case, what is OUR response? 🙏💐💪❤️🇺🇸

Christopher Armitage's avatar

Influence city and state officials to investigate and prosecute corrupt officials. Pass legislation that substantively improves the lives of their constituents (again focus on city and state level), strategic non-compliance with corrupt federal policies.

Funny Muffler's avatar

Nationwide general strike. Start saving cash now. Start growing your own food now. Stock up on medicine, clothes, drinking water. Get to know your neighbors (if they are trustworthy) or like-minded people in your area. If you don't have the means or the ability to defend yourself and your loved ones from physical harm, obtain them and start training now.

Christopher outlines the incredibly small chance of our success through national elections in the article. Even IF the we work our assess off and get enough people on board, what do you think the odds are of 1) Trump and the Republican party allowing the midterm to happen without further rigging (gerrymandering has already occurred in my state and several others), AND 2) Trump, the Republicans, and their voter base accept the results of the election, AND 3) They all agree to follow the law and peacefully transfer power, AND 4) They abide by any of the potential pieces of legislation described by Christopher that could be passed if the Democrats are able to secure a supermajority.

In my mind, the answer is ZERO barring a completely unforseen occurrence changing the rules of the game entirely.

With that in mind, the time to start planning for worst case scenario is NOW.

J Circosta's avatar

That’s my fear. Even if his gerrymandering push doesn’t work (although SCOTUS Heritage six will be glad to help) he will find ways : voter intimidation, messing with electronics, getting Rs to pass even more voter suppression laws - who knows. He will do anything. SCOTUS has another chance next year too to further gut the VRA. It’s mind blowing how things came together to put us where we are. Could be just as big of a configuration to start getting us out of it.

MS Kohut's avatar

I wish I could believe that, but there’s simply no evidence that having Democrats in office helps this nation. Joe Biden and his admin failed to do the most important job in history and now we are living in an authoritarian fascist country. The previous Democrat administrations helped destroy the social welfare state. Until the Democrats can stop bowing to Israel and corporations, I don’t have hope for our democracy led by either of these two parties.

Christopher Armitage's avatar

Fair assessment. The evidence doesn't show a party of opposition, just a few outliers.

MS Kohut's avatar

Yes. And those outliers have unfortunately now lost my respect because they have not left the corrupt party to join the people in opposition.

Pierre Ross's avatar

The single biggest difference between the GOP and the Dems is that Republicans know exactly what they are doing, and the Dems are STILL looking like a deer in the headlights.

Since 2016 Trump's forces have been laying the groundwork for a White Christian Fascist coup. Steadily gaining ground, denying their intentions, until the day when they can fully rip the mask off. That day is very, very close. Once they feel like all their pieces are fully in position, any old Reichstag fire will do.

The Dems, meanwhile, pretend that only the "tone" has shifted, that this is still a disagreement where both sides are democratic. It is a dangerous, farcical, and downright surreal misreading of the state of play.

If blue state governors had any understanding of the situation, they would be sounding the alarm, and issuing unequivocal warnings about what will no longer be tolerated, endured, or obeyed. They would be calling the GOP a fascist party. They would be arresting and prosecuting Trump's goons and accomplices wholesale, withholding all federal transfers, and mobilizing their own national guard to protect their states from federal intrusion.

Because this is it. Whether the governors want to believe it, or not, the final battle to save democracy is upon them, and they look like they're about to sleep through it.

GMil's avatar

I'm not entirely sure if your message here (e.g. this has never happened before) is nihilistic, given that supermajorities are never going to happen in this climate.

Here's the thing - simple Democratic majorities in Congress can do a lot and prevent a lot of future damage:

1. True legislative negotiation and spending power - and ZERO of the MAGA agenda becoming law.

2. Subpoena power so that every single cabinet member can be investigated and held to account for their lawlessness (and prosecuted after Trump loses his pardon power) - and just this threat alone can stop a lot of lawlessness before it starts.

3. Prevention of more Trump-appointed judges (Alito and Thomas, in particular).

4. Setting the agenda heading into 2028.

5. A fair certification of the 2028 elections.

6. Some much needed mental reprieve.

We need pro-democracy fighters at both the state and federal level, and we need every good American to support and vote for them IN EVERY ELECTION.

Christopher Armitage's avatar

1. SCOTUS has made it clear that if Trump wants to control the purse strings, they'll allow it.

2. They already ignore subpoenas without consequences, why would that change from the first T admin?

3. They already have the majority they need.

4. I'll need clarification of what you mean on this point.

5. Fair point but that doesn't include potential certification disruptions at the state level.

6. I see no signs he will follow rule of law of be held accountable. There's a decade of evidence showing an escalation of the opposite being true.

Despite disagreeing on almost every point you mentioned, I still completely agree with your conclusion.

GMil's avatar

1. With the help of a Republican majority, yes. But with a Dem majority that changes what Vought can get away with in courts (at least at the lower levels).

2. Some who ignored subpoenas actually saw some jail time.

3. They have the majority right now, but a Dem majority prevents that in 2027/2028.

4. Controlling what votes see the floor, what public hearings are about, and preventing Republican majority fuckery sets the party up better heading into 2028.

5. Agreed. And that's why we need to vote/push at state level (starting with removing all of those compromised "Liberty Vote" voting machines ;-).

6. FAFO.

I'll add a 7th: block extremist political appointees.

Look, I'm all aboard the state power train, but I think you should also simultaneously be pushing for max federal power as well, particularly when less than a handful of Dem state Governors and AGs have stepped up. It's not an "or" proposition. It certainly isn't for Republicans. All hands on deck.

Roger Wiesmeyer's avatar

Your point by point rebuttal really took the wind out of my sails :)

At the very least, having majorities determines who has the gavels and who is in the majorities in committees which is not nothing.

Also if there is a Scotus opening, we can slow walk the process like M² did and keep it from deteriorating further.

That's all i got. 🙏💪❤️🇺🇸

SJStone's avatar

That's a lot that has to happen. and that means there's a ton of work to do just to get everyone organized. Can Indivisible and 50501 do that work? Who else is there? And I appreciate that some will say "the Democratic Party," but I think that's foolish. The list of what the Democratic Party has failed to do in the last decade alone is criminal.

Dan Brown's avatar

The Dems need to seriously clean house to make this happen.

Judy Houck's avatar

Please don't forget the protests in the street! 7 or 10 million people at the last one! Look at the signs and where they come from! Washington is it's own bubble. Out here, thanks to all of us finding new ways to keep informed and get ourselves organized! We outnumber them by A LOT!

Indivisible and others are organizing fast.. grassroots!

I went to a tiny little town starting an organization to fight and not give up. This is a new big democracy movement.. not party affiliated yet. We shall see how it goes.

I'm an 86 year old radical left wing woman who learned about democracy in Berkeley in the 60s and 70s. Democracy is moving Fast!

Love you all!

Paul Croisiere's avatar

When democratic outcomes are the answer, fascism blocks the question. Midterms won't happen without a struggle.

Christopher Armitage's avatar

You understand 🧠

Lynn's avatar

Well I think most of us know what needs to happen in 2026, sadly, it’s never going to happen.

Voters must believe there will be significant changes enacted by the Democratic Party before they’ll come out in overwhelming numbers.

After the lack of enthusiasm and endorsement for Mandami by the democratic establishment, why would anyone believe they will enact true change?

What we need is new leadership. The old corporate funded guard must go.

I am not optimistic. There’s simply too much corporate money funding both sides.

I don’t think there will ever be a true accounting for the criminal acts engaged by this fascist regime.

Jason Edwards's avatar

Excellent breakdown of why the math doesn't work. But this exposes the deeper design flaw: we built a system where fixing structural problems requires supermajorities that are statistically impossible to achieve.

The Founders made amendment intentionally hard to prevent tyranny of the majority. But they didn't account for tyranny being unable to be STOPPED because the threshold is too high.

That's not a Trump problem. That's an architectural flaw that any authoritarian can exploit.

John Harris's avatar

That's a really great way of putting it that a lot of newer people might understand well so thank you.

Something else I've been thinking about: I still agree with and support Prop 50 and I think its already having some salutary effects given that Republicans seem to be hesitating slightly on mass gerrymandering with the prospect of blue state retribution now far more realistic. However, what are some changes that could be made within blue states that would be stabilizing in the face of soft to hard secession? I was thinking along the lines of making state legislatures (which make no difference in terms of congressional membership directly) more democratic with some form of proportional representation, or even moving to unicameralism but with proportional representation to compensate for losing a senate (which reiterates the flawed federal structure, but right now only Nebraska is unicameral).

My motives for bringing this up is that one of the obvious fracture points for a soft or hard secession is that its very true that no state or congressional district is entirely homogenous although I don't think that should dismiss the entire project. Better representation might help to alleviate the obvious tension and propaganda that might come from the idea that those who oppose secession "have no representation at all" (even though this won't eliminate the claim entirely but then they'll lie anyways) and peel off some of the opposition's supporters if they aren't entirely committed? This could also serve as a model system to work out the issues of proportional representation on a state level in an American context and act as a nucleus for newer, better ideas on a national or at least interstate level than what currently exists.

Just some thoughts.

Jason Edwards's avatar

I'm still getting up to speed on the soft secession framework (I only found this group last week), but this is a really important question about how to design representation that reduces rather than amplifies fracture.

The structural principle that resonates: winner-take-all systems create the "entirely homogenous" illusion you mention. They make any compromise look like betrayal, which accelerates the very divisions we're trying to manage.

State-level experiments with proportional representation could help - both as laboratories for what works and as pressure valves for the "no representation" concern. The key is designing reforms that reward cross-cutting coalitions rather than just redistributing tribal power.

Still thinking through how this intersects with the secession question though. Appreciate you raising it.

Lori's avatar

The midterms are a long shot. I’m all for blue states cutting off the Feds financially. This needs to happen soon.

Jack Carter's avatar

There will be no elections anymore. Trump will cancel them. On that you can trust those corrupt fascists. Lock them up before. Impeach von trump

Ethlyn Vogler's avatar

My question to my senators and representatives is what is being done to protect our free and fair elections.

Ethlyn Vogler's avatar

Also need to ask my state government.

Anne Sutherland's avatar

Fabulous comments -- bunch of government nerds! Love it!

Lincoln should have let the South secede! Then we'd need the WWII French underground and Schindler to smuggle all the slaves to the North.